Forum topic: Traffic has been increasing at an unsustainable rate

Closing roads to through vehicles reduces traffic as people choose to make short journeys on foot or by bike (a large percentage of trips in London are under 2km).

Closing roads to through vehicles causes traffic as a lot of people cannot walk or ride a bike. The vast majority of the cars are just moved onto teh surrounding streets and further on and does not solve the issue. It clears the streets for the LTN area and causes problems for the surrounding areas. There are no bus lanes on surrounding roads and public transport then does not become a viable alternative either. Only a small fraction of people and even less women and children are prepared to ride a bike in Enfield for obvious safety and practical reasons. Unfortunately cars are the safest and most reliable method of transport. Most fatal and serious injuries by far are pedestrians, motor and pedal cyclists. It is fantasy to think LTN will switch peoples transport preferences. Like I said there are far better and more sustainable methods and LTN is definitely not the answer and does not benefit the environment. LTN's are Unproven, Unjust, Unfair and very Unpopular in this community.

I read Peter Payne’s post from 2nd November (#5711) and went to the linked gov.uk site, but I can’t reproduce the data he lists. For example, for Enfield car traffic (million vehicle kilometres) for Enfield, the spreadsheet (TRA8905) shows this for 2009 – 2019:
1,207 1,386 1,297 1,369 1,327 1,393 1,442 1,436 1,458 1,496 1,532
which is a 27% increase overall, almost all of which has occurred on minor roads. Elsewhere on the site, there is a graph:

There have also been suggestions that any increase in traffic is due to light commercial vehicles (vans etc), but the same spreadsheet for Enfield (2nd tab) has this for the same time period for these vehicles:
199 203 210 227 227 262 279 319 326 342 346
This is a 74% increase, but as the overall numbers are lower, cars still account for the major part of the increase in vehicle miles (about two thirds)
This DfT graph

shows the increase in national car traffic since 2009-10. The document states:
“Between 2012 and 2019, growth in car traffic outstripped population growth, indicating an increase in average car driver distance (car traffic per capita grew by 8.1% in this time period).
In contrast, car traffic and car stock grew at similar rates between 2012 and 2019. Leading to the previously seen fall in mileage per car to slow down (increasing by 2.1% in the seven years since 2012). This period saw a marked fall in fuel retail prices (of over 10 pence per litre for petrol and diesel), which may have influenced how often or how far car owners travelled by car.”
The curve at the bottom is from the National Traffic Survey which roughly follows calculated mileage per car until about 2016 when it diverges. The methodology is very different and has fewer data points, tracking about 6000 households for a week. However, if I can find an authoritative opinion which can resolve these two things, I’ll repost.
So the balance of evidence does indicate a linear increase in car traffic in the last decade, locally and nationally. The question, therefore, remains as to what to do about it. The traffic is (largely) us in our cars and not some external thing that is visited on us. It is a pity that the discussion about LTNs has been so fraught and though “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” (Niels Bohr), I think it is likely that, by the time the decade is out, there will some form of road pricing (and/or other regulatory and financial measures) and a parallel cultural shift away from using cars for short journeys and I suspect we will look back and wonder what the fuss was about. There will be other things to worry about, by then.

Great news. Cycle trips on the cycle lanes at The Triangle up over 20% on 2019 figure! Joining the C20 cycle lane from both Fox Lane and Bowes areas is much safer and easier thanks to the trial low traffic neighbourhoods so perhaps we are seeing the signs of switching from car to bike here (Fox Lane rail bridge was especially nasty to cycle over)? In particular we're seeing many more families with children on their bikes as through traffic returns to the A roads (and that traffic volume will fall as more people switch to walking and cycling). More cycle lanes and more ltns in Enfield please!