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Forum topic: Covid-19 infections on the rise in Enfield?

Covid-19 infections on the rise in Enfield?

Basil Clarke

20 May 2020 19:29 #5354

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  • c 19 symptom study logo no paddingThe Covid Symptom Study suggests that cases have been increasing since 8th May across the country, though they are still a fraction of the peak estimate on 2nd April.
  • The most recent estimate for Enfield is 1.1 per cent of the population - nearly twice the estimate at the beginning of the month.
  • Three weeks ago the Study concluded that anosmia (loss of the sense of taste and/or smell) was a stronger predictor of Covid-19 than fever. The UK government this week added this to its list of symptoms.
  • The Covid-19 Symptom Study is running out of funding and has launched an appeal for donations.

There is evidence that the number of symptomatic Covid-19 infections in the London Borough of Enfield may have been rising over the past couple of weeks. That this may be so is suggested by recent estimates generated by the Covid-19 Symptom Study, which uses artificial intelligence to analyse data from a sample of over three million people with and without symptoms. The Study is appealing for donations to continue its work.

The most recent figure for total symptomatic Covid-19 infections estimated by the Covid-19 Symptom Study for Enfield is 4,319, or 1.1 per cent of the population (the estimate is for people aged between 20 and 69 only - sample sizes for younger and older people are too small to provide reliable results). Unfortunately, the study's website does not show previous estimates for individual local authority areas, so I can't be precise about this, but my recollection is that two or three weeks ago the estimate for Enfield had fallen to 0.5 or 0.6 per cent, which suggests that there has been a significant rise in infections since then.

The website does show older figures for the UK as a whole. Between 2nd April and 8th May it shows a very sharp drop in symptomatic cases, from over 2 million down to 230,000. However, since 8th May the estimated figure has been rising, and today reached 276,210.

It's important to bear in mind that the estimates are for symptomatic cases, and that many people who are infected do not have symptoms, even though they can spread the virus. To me (a complete layman in both medicine and statistics) it seems likely that the rate of non-symptomatic infection may fall and rise more or less at the same rate.

The COVID Symptom Study Appeal

image

The COVID Symptom Study is a non-profit research initiative working to support the NHS, the health of the UK public and to facilitate the safe release of lockdown through science. Without further funding it cannot continue its critical work. The app is in collaboration with Twins UK, the Chronic Disease Research Foundation and health science start-up ZOE. It is the largest community-powered COVID research project in the world with 3 million contributors. Funds will support over 50 scientists, engineers, researchers and data science experts to analyse COVID-19 data being delivered to the NHS, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and Public Health England daily.

By funding this unique non-profit study, you are supporting efforts to save lives and help the UK get out of lockdown safely.

Click here to donate

The COVID Symptom Study is the only app of its kind in the world to:

  • Prove that loss of smell is a major symptom of COVID, published in Nature Medicine.
  • Show how a combination of over a dozen symptoms can pose different risks.
  • Understand how blood pressure medication interacts with the virus.
  • Reveal the 12-fold higher risk to healthcare workers across regions
  • Show that UK COVID infection rates peaked on the 1st of April with 2.1 M people
  • Predict COVID hotspots around the country, and help redirect resources
  • Work with the UK’s largest health charities including Cancer Research UK, Versus Arthritis, Age UK and all of the 23 Royal Medical Colleges to help the country’s most vulnerable groups.
  • Support our healthcare system in conducting research at-scale including:
  • Researching Hormone Replacement Therapy studies to understand the role of oestrogen and COVID with NHS England;
  • Using our machine learning symptom model to support the Department of Health and Social Care to test the public nationally;
  • Identifying possible blood plasma donors to support treatment and trials of ICU patients with NHS Blood and Transplant Service.

This project is saving lives through science and will play an essential role over the next year to support our healthcare system and the wider UK community. Please help us to keep this study going through your participation and donations. The money raised will fund the team of over 50 researchers, data scientists, engineers and scientists working to support our health and the country’s future.

Funds no longer needed for this project will be used for other research grants into chronic diseases.

Click here to donate

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Covid-19 infections on the rise in Enfield?

PGC Webmaster

26 May 2020 22:47 #5355

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The estimated figures for symptomatic Covid-19 have now resumed falling both countrywide and in Enfield. The Enfield figure is now down to 4219 = 0.7% of the population. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

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