Forum topic: Most crime has fallen by 90% in the last 30 years

I’m now taking more interest in policing and crime articles, so this recent headline really struck me. Surely not I thought.
 I know stats can be dodgy. My first introduction to that was many years since when attending the inaugural professorship lecture of Adrian Smith, now President of the Royal Society, who introduced himself by saying he had more legs than the UK average. True, but at risk of being misleading, and certainly useless.
But in the 90% case, an article in the respected Conversation, supported by data from the Office of National Statistics, and a coloured chart, it does seem that violence, burglary and vehicle related theft have indeed fallen, gradually, off a cliff.
Being unlikely to be anyone’s perception it seeks to explain that disparity and mentions watching TV, reading newspapers and the like with their disproportionate focus on the bad things in life, plus politicised communications, such as the recent mayoral election where several candidates attempted to paint London as the new Gotham City.
It seems we’re better at security and with that it’s been harder for teens to get on the crime ladder, so helping curtail criminal careers early doors.
But its not all good news and phone theft and shoplifting are having their moment in the sun while half of all crime is now fraud / PC related.
Knife crime naturally has much attention. I found that this is a very broad definition, from stabbing through to illegally seeking to buy a knife when under 18. Police data appears to be different – when a knife or sharp object was used in a reported crime. (I’m not 100% here.) That’s a tighter definition. Knife enabled crime has been on the up over the 10 years to 2023. London saw the second LOWEST rise of all UK police forces and is 13% down post covid on pre covid data. But the second lowest rise hides the fact London started from a higher base. It accounts for 27% of the UK total despite having only 15% of the population. Good news or bad news depending on which end of the telescope you view the same data from.
What to conclude? Things probably aren’t as bad as we may feel, treat media and political commentary with a degree of skepticism, don’t use your phone in unprotected spaces and have the utmost suspicion of anything unexpected on your PC or phone, because that’s where the real action is.

  theconversation.com/most-crime-has-fallen-by-90-in-30-years-so-why-does-the-public-think-its-increased-228797

  youthendowmentfund.org.uk/is-knife-crime-at-record-highs/   

How do you fall down a cliff gradually? Sounds more like it's rolled a long way down a hill...

I don't think I would have guessed that fall in crime from the constant stream of stories that appear in the local and national press or social media forums? Think it possible that it also has a lot to do with the way the statistics are compiled for reporting the numbers of crimes in terms of charges, trials, convictions etc. Only this week three men were stabbed in Fore St and knife crimes for example, seem to be on the rise. There is also the example of reported crimes that don't get investigated so never appear as recorded. It's a very confusing picture.

To follow Neil’s posting, its exactly the impression given by press and social media, with its inevitable focus on sensationalism, which the research suggests has been a major factor in perception being out of step with actual crime levels. Stay calm despite the headlines! As for the other point, recorded crime which is not investigated is still very much a recorded crime, and as I’ve tried to convey many times can be crucial to the police in building bigger pictures and securing convictions, so please do report issues.

Then this week this appears in the Dispatch in an article headed: Sadiq Khan says robbery levels are too high.

Data published by the Office for National Statistics shows that robbery in London has risen 57% since Khan took office in 2016.

While 21,604 offences were recorded in the capital in the period from April 2015 to March 2016, the figure stood at 33,951 over the twelve months of 2023.

The increase across the whole of England and Wales between the same two periods was slightly higher however, at 59%.

Good to see Khan out-performing the national average there.

The robberies are suggested as being heavily skewed towards phone theft, and no surprise there if you ask around. Along with shoplifting and on line fraud, it's an adverse area I had flagged previously.But compare what could read as an end-of-the-world scenario with eg, “Crime falls to lowest level on record, ONS says“   www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67161967 And,  “According the Crime Survey for England and Wales, someone is actually less likely to be a victim of crime in  London  than they are across the country as a whole.”  www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/26/fact-check-has-sadiq-khan-really-overseen-a-surge-in-london  Yes, there is certainly bad, and unfortunately it is shown to frequently be the same people and same areas who bear a disproportionate share, but in Palmers Green I’d say be sensible in your precautions and don’t lose sleep over press headline grabs.